The market share of single crystal and polycrystalline has always been the focus of the photovoltaic industry chain. Affected by downstream battery technology and market, the demand for monocrystalline silicon wafers has continued to grow since 2015, and the market share continues to increase. In 2017, the proportion of single crystals in the Chinese market was about 36%.
According to the recent introduction by the Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Association Wang Bohua in public, in the first half of 2018, China's wafer production exceeded 50GW, an increase of about 39% year-on-year, of which exports exceeded 12GW. Recently, the development of single crystal and polycrystalline silicon wafers has the following characteristics:
(1) The production capacity of single crystal expansion and polycrystalline diamond wire technology has been released one after another, and the market supply is still increasing, but the concentration of production capacity is further increasing;
(2) In the first half of the year, some polysilicon wafer companies were subject to equipment, funds and other factors, and they stopped production or went bankrupt. There has been an acceleration trend since June;
(3) The price of silicon wafers continued to decline, with an average monthly decrease of 0.3 yuan/piece. By July, the single crystal was reduced to 3.15 yuan/piece, and the polycrystal was reduced to 2.2 yuan/piece;
(4) The scale economy and raw material prices have fallen, the production cost of silicon wafers continues to decline, and leading enterprises still have certain profitability.
Since 2016, the capacity of silicon rod ingots and wafers has been expanding, and the focus is on the single crystal rod. The distribution of capacity of silicon rods and silicon ingots that have been built and planned to be built in China in 2018 is shown in the above chart. From the perspective of production area distribution, the production of polycrystalline ingots has been mainly concentrated in the eastern region, and the single crystal rods are mainly concentrated in the northwest. The planned production capacity is mainly monocrystalline silicon rods, and concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Xinjiang and Ningxia, the expansion of polycrystalline silicon ingots is limited.
Yahua Consulting has compiled the expansion project of new polycrystalline ingots and single crystal pull rods for 2016-2018, as shown in the following table. It can be seen that in this round of capacity expansion, enterprises are more inclined to build single crystal capacity. The investment in new ingots for silicon ingots is as high as 64 billion yuan, and the new capacity will reach 100GW.
From a technical point of view, polycrystalline ingots and single crystal pull rod processes still have room for continuous optimization and improvement.
The single crystal pull rod technology is transitioning from the current mainstream multiple charge puller (RCz) to the next generation continuous crystal pull (CCz) technology. The CCz technology uses a special Czochralski single crystal furnace to perform single crystal drawing while melting and feeding, and 8-10 ingots can be drawn in the life cycle allowed by the crucible. Compared with RCz crystal pulling technology, CCz technology has lower oxygen content and more uniformity, slower accumulation of metal impurities, better quality of produced ingots, more uniform electrical resistivity and narrower distribution. Therefore, CCz monocrystalline silicon wafers are more suitable for use. PERC battery and N-type battery process. In addition, since CCz requires high-quality micro-polysilicon materials, the promotion of CCz will have a profound impact on the photovoltaic-grade polysilicon production pattern.
The polycrystalline ingot process is being upgraded from G6 ingot furnaces to G7 and even G8 technology, and while significantly increasing production capacity, it is necessary to continuously optimize hot zones, auxiliary materials, casting processes and equipment. Ingot single crystal has the advantages of high lifetime, low dislocation density and low cost, and is also an important development direction of silicon crystal manufacturing. It is reported that GCL-Poly has started accepting orders for ingot monocrystalline silicon wafers in 2018.
The 2018 Photovoltaic Single Crystal Pull Rod, Polycrystalline and Monocrystalline Ingot Casting Technology Forum hosted by Asia Chemical Consulting will be held on October 16th in Hangzhou, Zhejiang. From GCL-Poly, Longji, Artes, GTAT, Logomatic GmbH, Rongde New Energy, Jinggong Technology, Jingsheng Electromechanical, Sunytek, SRS, BT imaging, Jiangxi Sinoma, Bloomberg, Zhejiang University, Jiangsu University, Experts such as Shenhui Silicon Materials will attend the conference and make important reports.
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